Why Is This Important?
As pointed out by Warren Buffett, the percentage of total market cap (TMC) relative to the U.S. GNP is ��robably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.��
Knowing the overall market valuation and the expected market returns will give investors a clearer head on where we stand for future market returns. When the overall market is expensive and positioned for poor returns, the overall market risk is high. It is important for investors to be aware of this and take consideration of it in their asset allocation and investing strategies.
Please keep in mind that the long-term valuations published here do not predict short-term market movement. But they have done a good job predicting the long-term market returns and risks.
Wise man Howard Marks also pointed out that investors should always know where we are with the market. Predicting the direction of the market is hard. But investors can always make educated decisions based on current conditions.
Why Did We Develop These Pages?
We developed these pages because of the lessons we learned over years of val! ue investing. From the market crashes in 2001 to 2002 and 2008 to 2009, we learned that value investors should also keep an eye on overall market valuation. Many times value investors tend to find cheaper stocks in any market. But a lot of times the stocks they found are just cheaper, instead of cheap. Keeping an eye on the overall market valuation will help us to focus on absolute value instead of relative value.
The indicators we develop focus on the long term. They will provide a more objective view on the market.
Ratio of Total Market Cap over GDP - Market Valuation and Implied Returns
The information about the market valuation and the implied return based on the ratio of the total market cap over GDP is updated daily. The total market cap as measured by Wilshire 5000 index is now 97.5% of the U.S. GDP. The stock market will barely return 4% a year in the coming years. As a comparison, 12 months ago, the ratio of total market cap over GDP was 87.4%; it was likely to return 5.7% a year from that level of valuation. The 13% gain of 2012 has reduced the future gains by about 1.7% a year.
For details, please go to the daily updated page. In general, the returns of investing in an individual stock or in the entire stock market are determined by these three factors:
1. Business Growth
If we look at a particular business, the value of the business is determined by how much money this business can make. The growth in the value of the business comes from the growth of the earnings of the business growth. This growth in the business value is reflected as the price appreciation of the company stock if the market recognizes the value, which it does, eventually.
If we look at the overall economy, the growth in the value of the entire stock market comes from the growth of corporate earnings. As we discussed above, over the long term, corporate earnings grow as fast as the economy itself.
2. Dividends
Dividends are an important portion of the inve! stment re! turn. Dividends come from the cash earning of a business. Everything equal, a higher dividend payout ratio, in principle, should result in a lower growth rate. Therefore, if a company pays out dividends while still growing earnings, the dividend is an additional return for the shareholders besides the appreciation of the business value.
3. Change in the Market Valuation
Although the value of a business does not change overnight, its stock price often does. The market valuation is usually measured by the well-known ratios such as P/E, P/S, P/B etc. These ratios can be applied to individual businesses, as well as the overall market. The ratio Warren Buffett uses for market valuation, TMC/GNP, is equivalent to the P/S ratio of the economy.
Putting all the three factors together, the return of an investment can be estimated by the following formula:
Investment Return (%) = Dividend Yield (%)+ Business Growth (%)+ Change of Valuation (%)
From the contributions we can get the predicted return of the market.
The Predicted and the Actual Stock Market Returns
This model has done a decent job in predicting the future market returns. You can see the predicted return and the actual return in the chart below.
The prediction from this approach is never an exact number. The return can be as high as 10% a year or as long as -2% a year, depending where the future market valuation will be. In general, investors need to be cautious when the expected return is low.
Shiller P/E - Market Valuation and Implied Returns
The GuruFocus Shiller P/E page indicates that the Shiller P/E Shiller P/E: 22.2. Shiller P/E is 34.5% higher than the historical mean of 16.5. Implied future annual return: 2.7%. As a comparison, the regular trailing twelve month P/E is 17, slightly higher than the historical mean of 16. That is also why the media pundits are saying that the market is cheap.
Twelve months ago, the Shiller P/E was 26.4, and the regular trailin! g twelve ! month P/E was around 14. The market did look cheap with the trailing twelve month P/E.
The Shiller P/E chart is shown below:
Over the last decade, the Shiller P/E indicated that the best time to buy stocks was March 2009. However, the regular P/E was at its highest level ever. The Shiller P/E, similar to the ratio of the total market cap over GDP, has proven to be a better indication of market valuations.
Overall, the current market valuation is more expensive than the most part of the last 130 years. It is cheaper than most of the time over the last 15 years.
To understand more, please go to GuruFocus' Shiller P/E page.
John Hussman�� Peak P/E:
John Hussman uses the peak P/E ratio to smooth out the distortion of the corporate profits caused by the fluctuations of the profit margins. The current market return projected by his model is around 4% a year.
In his commentary on Nov. 26, Overlooking Overvaluation, he used the historical valuation of price to revenues, book values, dividends and cyclically adjusted earnings, and concluded that the market is somewhere between 40% to 70% above pre-bubble valuation norms. With any of these long-term valuation ratios, the market seems positioned for returns of around 5%, as shown in the chart below:
[img] [www.hussmanfunds.com] [/img]
This agrees with the returns projected by the ratio of total market cap over GDP and Shiller P/E.
In all the three approaches discussed above, the fluctuations of profit margin are eliminated by using GDP, the average of trailing 10-year inflation-adjusted earnings, and peak P/E, revenue, or book value, etc. Therefore they arrive at similar conclusions: The market is overvalued, and it is likely to return only 2% to 4% a year in the future years.
Jeremy Grantham�� 7-Year Projection:
Jeremy Grantham�� firm GMO publishes a monthly seven-year market forecast. The latest seven-year forecast published by GMO is below:
| Annual Real Return | |
| US Large Cap | 0.2% |
| US Small Cap | -0.40% |
| US High Quality | 4.9% |
| International Large Cap | 4.4% |
| International Small Cap | 4.1% |
| Emerging Market | 6.2% |
| US Bonds | -1.4% |
| International Bonds | -1.60% |
| emerging Debt | 2% |
| Index Linked Bonds | -2.70% |
| Cash | 0.1% |
Insider Trends
As indicated by the three different approaches discussed above, the best buying opportunities over the last five years appeared when the projected returns were at their highest level from October 2008 to April 2009, when investors could expect 10% a year from the U.S. market.
If average investors missed this opportunity, corporate insiders such as CEOs, CFOs and directors did not. As a whole, they purchased their own company shares at more than double the normal rate from October 2008 to April 2009. Many of these purchases resulted in multi-bagger gains. This confirmed again the conclusions of earlier studies: The aggregated activities of insiders can serve as a good indicator for locating the market bottoms. Insiders as a whole are smart investors of their own companies. They tend to sell more when the market is high, and buy more when the market is low.
As of August, we observed more insider buying activities. This is the current insider trend for S&P 500 companies:
The latest trends of insider buying are updated daily at GuruFocus' Insider Trend page. Data is updated hourly on this page. The insider trends of different sectors are also displa! yed in th! is page. The latest insider buying peak is at this page: September of 2011, when the market was at recent lows.
Conclusion: The stock market is not cheap as measured by long-term valuation ratios. It is positioned for about 3% to 5% of annual returns for the next decade. By watching the overall market valuations and the insider buying trends investors will have a better understanding of the risk and the opportunities. The best time to buy is when the market valuation is low, and insiders are enthusiastic about their own company's stocks.
Investment Strategies at Different Market Levels
The Shiller P/E and the ratio of total market cap over GDP can serve as good guidance for investors in deciding their investment strategies at different market valuations. Historical market returns prove that when the market is fair or overvalued, it pays to be defensive. Companies with high-quality business and strong balance sheets will provide better returns in this environment. When the market is cheap, beaten-down companies with strong balance sheets can provide outsized returns.
To summarize:
1. When the market is fair valued or overvalued, buy high-quality companies such as those in the Buffett-Munger Screener.
2. When the market is undervalued, buy low-risk beaten-down companies like those in the Ben Graham Net-Net Screener. Buy a basket of them and be diversified.
3. If the market is way over valued, stay in cash. You may consider hedging or short.
Best Small Cap Companies To Own In Right Now: InterDigital Inc.(IDCC)
Interdigital, Inc. engages in the design and development of digital wireless technology solutions. The company offers technology solutions for use in digital cellular and wireless products and networks, including 2G, 3G, 4G, and IEEE 802-related products and networks. It holds patents related to the fundamental technologies that enable wireless communications. The company licenses its patents to equipment producers that manufacture, use, and sell digital cellular and IEEE 802-related products; and licenses or sells mobile broadband modem solutions, including modem IP, know-how, and reference platforms to mobile device manufacturers, semiconductor companies, and other equipment producers that manufacture, use, and sell digital cellular products. InterDigital?s solutions are incorporated in various products comprising mobile devices, such as cellular phones, tablets, notebook computers, and wireless personal digital assistants; wireless infrastructure equipment, such as base stations; and components, dongles, and modules for wireless devices. The company was founded in 1972 and is headquartered in King of Prussia, Pennsylvania.
Best Small Cap Companies To Own In Right Now: Texas Instruments Incorporated(TXN)
Texas Instruments Incorporated engages in the design and sale of semiconductors to electronics designers and manufacturers worldwide. The company?s Analog segment offers high-performance analog products comprising standard analog semiconductors, such as amplifiers, data converters, and interface semiconductors; high-volume analog and logic products; and power management semiconductors and line-powered systems. Its Embedded Processing segment includes DSPs that perform mathematical computations to process and enhance digital data; and microcontrollers, which are designed to control a set of specific tasks for electronic equipment. The company?s Wireless segment designs, manufactures, and sells application processors and connectivity products. Its Other segment offers smaller semiconductor products, which include DLP products that are primarily used in projectors to create high-definition images; and application-specific integrated circuits. This segment also provides handhe ld graphing and scientific calculators, as well as licenses technologies to other electronic companies. The company serves the communications, computing, industrial, consumer electronics, automotive, and education sectors. Texas Instruments Incorporated sells its products through a direct sales force, distributors, and third-party sales representatives. It has collaboration agreements with PLX Technology Inc.; Neonode, Inc.; and Ubiquisys Ltd. The company was founded in 1938 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.
Advisors' Opinion:- [By Beth Piskora]
They are listed below:
Altera (ALTR)��ielding 1.7%
Apple (AAPL)��ielding 2.5%
Applied Materials (AMAT)��ielding 2.6%
Cisco (CSCO)��ielding 2.9%
EMC Corp. (EMC)��ielding 1.5%
International Business Machines (IBM)��ielding 2.0%
KLA-Tencor (KLAC)��ielding 3.2%
Microchip Technology (MCHP)��ielding 3.6%
Oracle (ORCL)��ielding 1.5%
Qualcomm (QCOM)��ielding 2.1%
Texas Instruments (TXN)��ielding 2.9%
Xilinx (XLNX)��ielding 2.3%
Subscribe to S&P's The Outlook here��/P>
- [By Lee Jackson]
Texas Instruments Inc. (NASDAQ: TXN) also supplies VOIP chips to Cisco, but their sales to the company amount to a very small percentage which is not expected to hurt overall performance. The consensus price target for the venerable tech company is $38. Shareholders are paid a 2.9% dividend.
- [By Jeff Reeves]
Texas Instruments (TXN) might not be the sexiest stock out there in a post-PC age, where mobile devices are all the rage. But this chipmaker still does very brisk business across a host of tech segments, and in fact has recently eclipsed its pre-recession highs; TXN stock is up more than 40% in the past 12 months.
- [By Dividends4Life]
Texas Instruments Inc. (TXN) engages in the design, manufacture, sale of semiconductors to electronics designers and manufacturers worldwide. September 19th the company increased its quarterly dividend 7% to $0.30 per share. The dividend is payable November 18, 2013, to stockholders of record on October 31, 2013. The yield based on the new payout is 3.9%.
Top 10 Blue Chip Stocks To Own For 2014: Rackspace Hosting Inc(RAX)
Rackspace Hosting, Inc. operates in the hosting and cloud computing industry. It provides information technology (IT) as a service, managing Web-based IT systems for small and medium-sized businesses, as well as large enterprises worldwide. The company?s service suite includes dedicated hosting comprising customer management portal and other management tools that manage data center, network, hardware devices, and operating system software; and cloud computing that enables customers to provide and manage a pool of computing resources, as well as delivery of computing resources to business when they need them. It offers cloud servers, cloud files, and cloud sites, as well as cloud applications, such as email, collaboration, and file back-ups; and hybrid hosting that provides a combination of dedicated hosting and cloud computing services. The company also offers customer support services. It sells its service suite through direct sales teams, third-party channel partners, an d online ordering. The company was formerly known as Rackspace.com, Inc. and changed its name to Rackspace Hosting, Inc. in June 2008. Rackspace Hosting, Inc. was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in San Antonio, Texas.
Best Small Cap Companies To Own In Right Now: Sky-mobi Limited(MOBI)
Sky-mobi Limited engages in the operation of a mobile application store in the People?s Republic of China. It works with handset companies to pre-install its Maopao mobile application store on handsets and with content developers to provide users with applications and content titles. The users of its Maopao store could browse, download, and purchase a range of applications and content, such as single-player games, mobile music, and books. The company?s Maopao store enables mobile applications and content to be downloaded and run on various mobile handsets with hardware and operating system configurations. It also operates a mobile social network community, the Maopao Community, where it offers localized mobile social games, as well as applications and content with social network functions to its registered members. The company owns proprietary mobile application technology in the cloud computing, the MRP format, and SDK development environment. As of March 31, 2011, it had entered into cooperation agreements with approximately 523 handset companies to pre-install Maopao. The company was formerly known as Profit Star Limited and changed its name to Sky-Mobi Limited in October 2010. Sky-mobi Limited was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Hangzhou, China.
Best Small Cap Companies To Own In Right Now: bebe stores inc.(BEBE)
bebe stores, inc. engages in the design, development, and production of women?s apparel and accessories. Its products include a range of separates, tops, dresses, active wear, and accessories in career, evening, casual, and active lifestyle categories. The company markets its products under the bebe, BEBE SPORT, bbsp, and 2b bebe brand names targeting 21 to 34-year-old woman. As of July 2, 2011, it operated 252 retail stores, and an online store at bebe.com in the United States, the District of Columbia, Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Japan, and Canada, as well as 60 international licensee operated stores in south east Asia, the United Arab Emirates, Israel, Russia, Mexico, and Turkey. The company was founded in 1976 and is headquartered in Brisbane, California.
Advisors' Opinion:- [By Ben Levisohn]
Bebe Stores (BEBE) reported a loss of 14 cents a share, more than the 13 cent loss forecast by analysts, and said it would experience a loss in the low- to mid-teens during the current quarter.
Best Small Cap Companies To Own In Right Now: Achillion Pharmaceuticals Inc.(ACHN)
Achillion Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, engages in the discovery, development, and commercialization of treatments for infectious diseases. The company focuses on the development of antivirals for the treatment of chronic hepatitis C; and the development of antibacterials for the treatment of resistant bacterial infections. Its drug candidates for the treatment of chronic HCV include ACH-1625, a protease inhibitor, which is in phase IIa clinical trial for the treatment of chronic HCV; ACH-2684, a pangenotypic protease inhibitor, which is in phase I clinical trial for the treatment of chronic HCV infection; and NS5A inhibitors for the treatment of chronic HCV infection, including ACH-2928, which is to enter a phase I clinical trial, as well as various additional NS5A inhibitors in preclinical development. Its pipeline of product candidates also includes ACH-702 and ACH-2881 for drug resistant bacterial infections; elvucitabine for HIV infection; and AC H-1095 for HCV infection. The company was founded in 1998 and is based in New Haven, Connecticut.
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